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Less flippantly, when I look at some of the great companies that sounded like truly crazy ideas, there are a couple of patterns.Chanel was 11 years old when her mother died, and as her wayward father—a traveling salesman with a supposed wandering eye—was often away, it was decided that she would be sent to the convent of Aubazine in the remote French region of Corrèze. Here, her unusual and impoverished situation meant that she was among the girls singled out to wear an austere black-and-white uniform, one that she would adapt through the years to dress the richest and most stylish women of her age. In imaginative retellings of her autobiography, Chanel would refer to the convent’s strict and unforgiving nuns as “aunts.” These taskmasters nevertheless taught the young Chanel to sew and thus gave her the tools to forge a life as an independent woman for herself in later years. The aesthetic of the convent stayed with Chanel forever. Her distinguished future biographer Edmonde Charles-Roux saw in the designer’s “yearning for austerity” or in the moments when she. A very opinionated technical bet, a coherent business strategy that feels extreme (consumer experience and convenience over margin at scale, with operational excellence – Amazon), or markets that seem very niche but are much, much larger than they appear (Couchsurfing for design conferences or a global marketplace for travel and experiences – AirBnB, a mobile app for black cars or personal transport – Uber). Plenty of people still think solar is a crazy, bad, dumb idea but the Chinese are doing wonders and plenty of Americans continue to tinker with it to make it better and better, more and more efficient and cheaper. The same with batteries and games and everything we use. And things you and I haven’t thought of.

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I’d be very cautious about any of these ideas; they *could* be crazy good, but they’re probably just crazy. Second, I look for customer demand. Is this solving a problem that customers are definitely feeling? Our customers clearly unsatisfied with the current solutions and ready to jump on this new idea, or is this a neat idea in search of a need? The answer to this marks the difference between a crazy-good idea and a hobby. The line between an idea that is crazy good and just crazy can be hard to decipher. Speaking from my own experience, a good idea that looked like a bad idea was probably the Cultural Leadership Fund. I remember the amount of time and number of steps it took to get the CLF off the ground. I thought that maybe the idea was too crazy for VC since it never existed before, but the big vision kept me focused. You have to do whatever is needed to ignite the flame of inspiration to keep your dream moving forward every single day. It’s the culmination of small actions every day that turn your crazy idea into one that people eventually understand and admire. Apple’s most recognized commercial focused on celebrating the crazy ones, so continue to raise a glass to those who believe what nobody else can believe and bring it to life. I think every founder has to be a little crazy. So if we take that as a given, then the answer to that question is just survivorship who is succeeding.